For more than half of this year I was ignoring the Total Market Cap because BTC is completely in control since April/May 2019. Alts did nothing relevant or impressive in this period and they may not do anything interesting while BTC is under 10k. Nevertheless Total Market Cap is showing us exactly why BTC and Alts may start pushing higher from this level.
First of all, we should consider a false breadown of the Weekly 50SMA (current support for almost one month) but a breakdown of this Moving Average may be the trigger for another major leg up. We don’t have to go lower but we need a trigger to push higher. That trigger usually comes in form of price action and volume. Something that we lack at the moment but who knows when and why it will come. Another reason to start moving higher is just because Bears may have lost control and fuel to push price lower. If no one is interested in selling lower than price will hold and bounce at some point without any particular reason.
One thing we can be sure, 200B Market Cap represents a confluence of supports and no one should be expecting another breakdown like the previous. History never repeats exactly in the same way because we don’t have the same market structure and conditions. What we currently have is a reversal from the Bearish trend formed in 2018 and a nice pullback from the last high (near 400B), we remain in Bearish territory (for short term) until we push above 230B Market Cap. The white line in this Weekly Chart is the 9 Week SMA and it usually works like a short term trend, if price gets above we can expect another leg up but if we remain under this line then another low is possible and even expectable (eventually around 170B market cap, but it may not happen).