We keep monitoring the crypto market but we still need more confirmations for some kind of Bullish Reversal. Anyway we can expect volatility from here since many people are waiting for the same, this can be good or bad but we can’t guess if this time we actually start breaking more resistances or if we keep failing as we did many times in the last months (year).
In the short term things look better with many supports playing out but they can start failing. Keep checking the charts we previously shared on tradingview and also this new one.
BTC Mayer Multiple is a great indicator but today we also need to ponder alts price action. Considering this we developed an adjusted version of the Mayer Multiple (our Major Mayer Multiple) replacing BTC with Total Market Cap from 2016/2017 and also introducing a second Moving Average. This changes may not be enough to detect reversals in the next cycles but they give more accuracy than focusing only on BTC.
This indicator is quite configurable so we provide clues about some settings you can adjust as you want…
SMA #A – Default Mayer Multiple SMA, can be changed from 200 Days to something else.
SMA #B – Adjusted Mayer Multiple MA for more details, this daily SMA can be lower or higher than the previous.
MMM EMA – Major Mayer Multiple EMA colored line for a smoother visualization. If this EMA is set to 1 it will essentially match the Major Mayer Multiple Area. Low values tend to be more interesting but even a 200 EMA can give you lagging entry and exit points for larger time frames. This EMA is calculated based on the current time frame (of your chart) and not on the daily basis.
Color Length – Color length of the MMM EMA, it will help to adjust how the colouring of this EMA is made. For instance if MMM EMA is set to 1 and Color Length to 1, every time the EMA increases the line will change. This setting essentially exists to reduce noise when the direction changes for few ticks.
Upper Band – Upper limit, triggers a color change on the Major Mayer Multiple Area.
Lower Band – Lower limit, triggers a color change on the Major Mayer Multiple Area.
Many indicators and patterns suggest a big move in the cryptocurrency market in the next weeks/months. One of this patterns is quite visible on BTC Dominance chart. For the last 200 days a triangle is consolidating and a break is quite imminent since we entered the last 25% of this formation. Breaking down would trigger an alts season, breaking up may trigger further lower lows for alts and probably also BTC.
Until now Total Market Cap still holds where we expected but moving higher or lower also suggests more price action than what we had in the last days.
Following our last post we saw the expected pullback (sooner and quicker but still expected). Total Market Cap is now testing the support mentioned and for any Bullish continuation we need to stay above 125B Market Cap and also above the 50MA (yellow). If we have a confirmation on this line turning into support (as it seems) we may break the green broadening wedge sooner than later nevertheless if we fail we need to consider a test of the previous low or even a new lower low.
BTC is also holding where it should and the assumption is the same… we need to hold this levels for more upside action.
Total Market Cap is looking better but we need to stay very cautious trading this bottom. At the moment we have an impressive volume pushing us in the right direction, we started breaking some resistances, some alts already broke their downtrend and it seems that the buying pressure may increase as alts will start retracing (providing better entry points than now) nevertheless nothing is granted.
I’m looking for a confirmation of an Adam and Eve bottom (even if the Eve low is 10% above the Adam low, not really perfect) expecting that should push us out of the broadening wedge (green lines). It may happen soon or not but a pullback from here is quite expected. Using the Total Market Cap we may pullback 10/15% but better not to fall more than that or we may move below our supports (yellow and blue lines) invalidating a move higher in the short term.
Using the VPVR (Volume Profile) we have almost no price action between 150B and 170B, meaning this range can easily be skipped by buyers and sellers, nevertheless we have the 200 Daily MA playing as resistance. Usually we expect some support/resistance from the 50MA and 200MA but breaking them easily also happens often as we can see recently with EOSUSD but sooner or later a retracement happens.
For any MA to be a strong Resistance or Support it needs multiple testes and failures. For instance on EOSUSD the 50MA and 200MA are very far from each other and the 50MA is still below the 200MA, so the 50MA will be our next support and the 200MA will remain the resistance (even if it broke, it will likely not last longer).