Waiting can be boring but many times it’s the best we can do… Alts Market Cap failed to bounce and dipped quite hardly after testing the Daily 200MA. Nonetheless, this dip doesn’t mean we go down from here, probably many Stop Losses got triggered and at this point almost all long leveraged position are liquidated (non-existent) providing less fuel for Bears.
What Bulls want to see now is a strong support like previously mentioned. If we hold here for two or more weeks it means Bulls are finally in control and they will catch any lower low without hesitation (like some already did with this one).
Historically we already saw something quite similar when the previous Bull Market Started…
the fundamentals something great about cryptocurrencies is transparency. We
have so much data available to produce good information it became fascinating.
Not all the information produced is good but we need to start somewhere and improve.
Something I noticed, and I’m not the only one, is how alt seasons happen in a recurring way. Since bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency and it may continue to be for many years we can observe this cycles just looking at the BTC dominance chart.
In this first chart we notice that BTC is losing Dominance over time and we can also see five major alt Seasons, each one different in many details but all of them quick (between 1 and 4 months) and sharp (between 220% and 2300% increase in market cap.).
Bellow each one is listed in duration and proportion but the previous rise (when present) due to BTC increasing in dominance is ignored.
#1 – 90 days
#2 – 125 days
#3 – 60 days
#4 – 110 days
#5 – 35 days
Alt market cap rise…
#1 – 1800%
#2 – 220%
#3 – 250%
#4 – 2300%
#5 – 280%
In both charts we have a descending triangle in formation for the last 150 days suggesting a new alt season when, and if, this pattern breaks on the downside. Nevertheless this recurrence shouldn’t be considered alone and we can’t forget that the dominant market trend remains Bearish.
Any alt season attempt in a Bear market tends to be short lived and reverted however a Bear market can start bottoming with an alt season. For instance Q3 2014 signalled the bottom for alts and BTC only reached the bottom in Q1 2015.