On the short term ETHBTC is testing new Lows but how about mid and long term?
Monthly chart shows something interesting and it eventually gives us some clues about what may happen if some conditions are met. First of all my mid/long term sentiment is Bullish and will remain Bullish unless we start breaking some “strong” supports (0.011BTC or 0.008BTC for instance). That said, ETHBTC is near two major supports, 0.018BTC on the monthly and 0.016BTC on the weekly. Considering the fact that ETH fundamentals (transactions, network activity, and so on) aren’t dropping we can expect them to increase as soon as we have some positive price action. Market is very cautious at the moment because everyone seems afraid of BTC achieving new local lows (8k or less) but if it doesn’t happen this month price will not lag forever.
Nevertheless if the market gains more confidence and ETH holds at this levels closing the month near 0.016 or 0.018 and if we have a bounce in the next month that bounce may signal the beginning of a strong reversal. Never forget that corrections are slow and boring, but Bull Runs can last less and move fast. The monthly chart clearly shows 6 big green candles and plenty of small red candles (ignoring the first 2 months).
If we consider the fact that Binance (one of the major exchanges) is 30 days away from blocking all U.S. customers from the regular exchange (where many alts are traded) the fact that BTC dominance is again near another local High shouldn’t be a surprise. Nevertheless the big question remains the same when and how strong is the next Alts Season (since all attempts to start one failed).
At the moment, it’s hard to guess when since we don’t have strong patterns playing out and also because the bounce on many BTC pairs is now vanishing with some of them already reaching new Lower Lows. On the other hand BTC may test the top of the short term downtrend and if it breaks out from that channel alts probably will suffer a bit more. Best case scenario Alts may finally start recovering after September 12 but nothing is granted. After all, BTC and Alts may keep lagging until October/November or they can do something else.
One of the multiple scenarios for Alts Market Cap is something like in the next chart.
If alts want any sort of comeback they need to leave the white trading range with strength/volume. On the other hand if we breakdown this white trading range or if we retest the top and fail we should expect an increasing sell pressure and more downside.
Many “preachers” said this for some days/weeks but past price action may be repeating. In 2015/2016 when the market turned Bullish BTC pumped first (with alts flat), this time alts also moved and even faster than BTC, in the first 3 months of the year, but the last 3 months they considerably lost to BTC.
Alts Market Cap (and many alts) started testing some important supports and
this is where we should see some strength and even things going higher. Alts have
now the possibility to shine while everyone is accepting the fact that BTC isn’t
going to 30k this year. It may sound weird for many but its possible (not
granted) that alts may have an amazing run in the following months. We probably
need some more days or even 2 or 3 weeks before some strong action since it
usually starts slowly with alts holding their level, than pushing a bit higher
than moving faster and faster until they reach another local top.
Just to give an idea check how it played out in 2015/2016…
Ethereum is my favourite alt and I keep a close eye on it every single day because it’s also my major investment. Unfortunately since the ICO bashing started Ethereum lost performance nevertheless no other alt have a stronger community, so much development and so many people working on it.
Ethereum is a huge ecosystem and even with other cryptocurrency platforms (EOS, ADA, TRON, and so on), none of them have so much volume, activity and transactions. Sure, Dapps are still far from their major Boom but it will take time for Dapps to explode (5 to 10 years just to start in my opinion).
On the TA side, ETHUSD is also very near the Daily 200SMA and the 61% fib retracement and for that reason (and more) I’m buying more at this levels (220/180). I’m expecting some more ups and downs near 210 before we start pushing higher but if the support is stronger than I’m expecting I don’t want to miss the next leg. At this levels anything can happen we may pump quickly and strongly, we may lag for a while or may even fall below the support (if BTC starts pushing lower and faster than expected).
Some alts pulled more than I was initially expecting but in part because BTC also pushed more and triggered another major sell off. BTC almost tested 14k when it’s now pretty clear that the market isn’t ready (yet) to pass the 11.5k/12.8k weekly/monthly resistance but that didn’t prevent many traders to sell their alts for BTC. Meanwhile ETHBTC is testing new Lows possibly forming a descending broadening wedge (Bullish formation).
Now is probably a good time to give much more attention to alts and don’t worry missing the bottom, they will increase more than many expect since this situation probably created a big Supply scarcity (how many believe alts are dead and don’t have any alts to sell?). Anyway, demand wasn’t there for sure because everyone started investing more on BTC in the last 3 months (any BTC cross pair pictures that). But it doesn’t mean they will never again invest/trade alts, some like me already started buying. It’s all about opportunities and the opportunity to make more profits over BTC is now cooling down but it will come back in some weeks/months while the opportunity to make more money over alts is increasing.
Alts Market Cap reached some very important supports like the Daily 200 SMA and 61% fib retracement from what can be Wave 1. Nonetheless and because BTC is still expected to pullback more (to 9k at least) we can’t be sure if alts will recover from here or if they will do something else. What we can do is watching how this supports plays out…
Investing isn’t a sprint but in the cryptocurrency world we have some sprints and also consolidation periods. Overall we move slower than everyone buying this local tops think we will. We saw far too much hype in the past four weeks with analysts suggesting 30k targets for this year when price was in fact much higher than fundamentals and some slower indicators like the 200 Moving Averages.
using more conservatives entries anything below 9k can be a good entry for the
next 3 months and more. We really need to see how price action evolves after breaking
down this red line but before it happens the idea is quite simple: above 10k
Supply is in control (until it isn’t), below 9k Demand should be in control.
Historically any break below the 100SMA is sharp and quick but since this Bull Market is still at the beginning we may have a longer consolidation period and we may even test the 200SMA.
About alts, it’s still unclear when the altseason may start so better to wait until we have a clear and strong signal, for instance alts pumping more than 15% in a single day.