BTC 200 Days SMA

BTC is trading above the 200 Days SMA (Simple Moving Average). We have now a full daily candle above that Moving Average but it doesn’t mean BTC is safe or will continue pushing higher. We can expect this second break (previous failed) to last but we need more confirmations.

At this point it doesn’t make sense to remain Bearish. BTC broke the descending channel formed since July 2019, it retested that resistance and bounced from it. BTC still have plenty of resistances to break and it may continue going down nevertheless price action is historically Bullish above that Moving Average (we don’t have so many breaks and failures in BTC price history).

BTC Bullish Confirmations?

BTC broke some resistances but now we need confirmations. Using the 3 Day chart we can foresee two major scenarios.

  • BTC doesn’t pullback much (preferably 8.5k but ~7.9k should be fine) and keeps rising breaking more resistances (including ~13k).
  • BTC achieved a new lower high (below 10k) and starts pushing lower (eventually finding support near 5k).
3Day BTC
Daily BTC

What’s next?

6 Weeks ago BTC traded above the Weekly 50SMA (yellow dotted line) but at that time the 21 Week SMA (blue dotted line) was higher than it is now and sellers won that fight. Nevertheless, If BTC starts trading above the Weekly 21SMA, we may start the next leg up. If not, we remain Bearish for short and mid-term.

Weekly BTC

BTC Recap

As we know, BTC produced a very strong impulsive move from 3k to 14k but it doesn’t mean it will not go below 6k again. In fact we don’t have much support below 6.3k and revisiting 6.9k can be the catalyst needed for another crash to 5k. Nothing is granted but we already saw a strong dump when BTC broke down the 3Day 200SMA and something similar can happen again.

3Day BTC

The only way to avoid that would be holding above 7.4/7.5k and finally pumping well above 8.1k. 9.5k/10.3k is the next resistance, if we retest that level and confirm support near 8k we may be over with this wave 2 but almost everything is suggesting the opposite. We should expect more lows, eventually another crash (capitulation) liquidating over-leveraged traders/investors. Don’t be one of them.

3Day BTC – Clean Version

BTC pump and Alts dump

While BTC is pushing higher, breaking the previous resistance (near 7.5k) alts keep dumping. ETHBTC is only 5% above the last low (achieved in September 2019) and we don’t know what will happen next. Many expect BTC to pump but honestly we need more than this to be optimistic. BTC clearly needs to show strength holding above 7.5k and breaking 8.5k. If it doesn’t happen 5k remains our next target.

3Day BTC
Weekly BTC
Monthly BTC
Alts Market Dominance