BTC Update

Nothing shared here or anywhere else can be taken as granted or should be used as the only source of information because no one can perfectly time each move. In fact, BTC pushed above what would be my Local Top (12.8k or 11.5k) but strongly rejected the new Local Top (13.9k on average).

This local top can be the Top of the Big Wave 1, previously mentioned, or we may push a bit more (even reaching 15k), something I wasn’t expecting and that may not happen but we need to consider this possibility.

I don’t believe in parabolic moves to 30K this year like some already published and I still consider this move quite Bearish (for short term) but this is what I’m looking at.

Multiple daily closes below 12.8k will confirm this local top but if we close above 12.8k we may have one more push eventually testing 15k or more. Many indicators suggest overbought and I believe we have now the perfect conditions for a Bull Trap that may trap some buyers for 2 or 3 months.

BTC Weekly Chart

Let’s wait and see how the week and month will close and don’t forget that we already achieved five consecutive months in green… sooner or later a pause is more than welcome.

BTC Monthly Chart

BTC+LTC+DASH MVRV also pictures well how far we got without any major pullback and how likely it is for some sort of consolidation before we push further.


Who knows…

Local Tops and Bottoms aren’t easy to predict or read but everyone should think about this and more…

Meanwhile alts may finally be ready for their major pump… usually with high speculation and less risk aversion also comes big moves on alts. Nevertheless we may also see something quite different with alts recovering some value while BTC lose it. We definitely need some confirmations but I will not be surprised if many alts pump more than 100% in the coming weeks.

Top 5 Alts Dominance Patterns
BTC Dominance

BTC First Leg done?

BTC did an amazing Run in the last 6 months. It boosted the confidence and our portfolios but we reached a point where risk management and funds preservation are more important than speculating where we can go in the next years.

I can’t and I will never give advices, everyone invest and trade how they want but I’m pretty happy with this 260% (from December low to this week high). We may or may not push higher, 11.5k or even a bit more is a nice target but from a conservative point of view I have no interest in catching this last few dollars.

First BTC Pullback Scenario, I will publish more scenarios if needed

For the next months I believe we will have a pause testing 9.7k first (this one may easily fail) and then testing 7.4/8.2k and if we fail there testing 6k (but I can be wrong). Since the Libra Coin should stimulate some more debate on cryptocurrencies it’s also quite possible that many governments will take action against private coins like Facebook Coin (Libra) and the whole market may suffer a bit testing 5k (in my worst case scenario) but nothing that worries my Bullish View for the next years.

On the big picture this is only the first leg of a major Bull Run, lasting 2/3 years or more depending on how fast we move. Faster we move, faster we should see another major correction.

Good luck all

Not everything is a cryptocurrency

For many people tokens are cryptocurrencies because we don’t have a strong and well defined definition of what a cryptocurrency is but even if we consider tokens (stable coins for instance) as cryptocurrencies we, at least, should know their agenda.

For instance Libra (FB stable coin) works with a reserve and the reserve is invested…

“Users of Libra do not receive a return from the reserve. The reserve will be invested in low-risk assets that will yield interest over time. The revenue from this interest will first go to support the operating expenses of the association — to fund investments in the growth and development of the ecosystem, grants to nonprofit and multilateral organizations, engineering research, etc. Once that is covered, part of the remaining returns will go to pay dividends to early investors in the Libra Investment Token for their initial contributions.”

So… is this a cryptocurrency or something else?

Don’t give away your profits…