We keep monitoring the crypto market but we still need more confirmations for some kind of Bullish Reversal. Anyway we can expect volatility from here since many people are waiting for the same, this can be good or bad but we can’t guess if this time we actually start breaking more resistances or if we keep failing as we did many times in the last months (year).
In the short term things look better with many supports playing out but they can start failing. Keep checking the charts we previously shared on tradingview and also this new one.
BTC Mayer Multiple is a great indicator but today we also need to ponder alts price action. Considering this we developed an adjusted version of the Mayer Multiple (our Major Mayer Multiple) replacing BTC with Total Market Cap from 2016/2017 and also introducing a second Moving Average. This changes may not be enough to detect reversals in the next cycles but they give more accuracy than focusing only on BTC.
This indicator is quite configurable so we provide clues about some settings you can adjust as you want…
SMA #A – Default Mayer Multiple SMA, can be changed from 200 Days to something else.
SMA #B – Adjusted Mayer Multiple MA for more details, this daily SMA can be lower or higher than the previous.
MMM EMA – Major Mayer Multiple EMA colored line for a smoother visualization. If this EMA is set to 1 it will essentially match the Major Mayer Multiple Area. Low values tend to be more interesting but even a 200 EMA can give you lagging entry and exit points for larger time frames. This EMA is calculated based on the current time frame (of your chart) and not on the daily basis.
Color Length – Color length of the MMM EMA, it will help to adjust how the colouring of this EMA is made. For instance if MMM EMA is set to 1 and Color Length to 1, every time the EMA increases the line will change. This setting essentially exists to reduce noise when the direction changes for few ticks.
Upper Band – Upper limit, triggers a color change on the Major Mayer Multiple Area.
Lower Band – Lower limit, triggers a color change on the Major Mayer Multiple Area.
GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) may not be the perfect example but it’s one of the many showing a potential break or if it fails further and quicker moves lower. As mentioned previously we have many indicators and patterns suggesting big moves for the next weeks/months and better to monitor them all than be sorry.
In only looking at contributors to core protocol (excluding those who contribute code updates to the website, documentation, etc.), Ethereum is by far the most active at 99 monthly developers on average.
In general, many developers are working on core protocol for platforms. Besides Ethereum, other big platforms (EOS, Cardano, TRON) all have over 25+ monthly core protocol developers on average.
In 2014/2015 (previous Bear Market) BTC represented more than 80% of the Total Market Cap but today this value is below 60%. Considering this and because we don’t have enough data to create a MRVR ratio for all the major cryptocurrencies (calculated by dividing the Network Value by the Realised Cap), some of them didn’t even exist, we will work with BTC, LTC and DASH using Coimetrics.io.
What we can clearly notice is how the cryptocurrency market dipped without giving much fight probably because we have more experienced traders and investors (fighting less the downside). Something also interesting is how the Market Cap was quite stable above the Realized cap and then we saw what can be consider has the final capitulation (many will disagree on that but looking at the MVRV ratio we can see a strong reaction at the same lows).
Nevertheless the big questions remain the same. Will we go lower? Is this the bottom? Will we see a W shaped bottom or something else? Looking at some patterns on this MVRV Ratio we can expect something different and probably with less downside as we move higher (if we can keep moving higher). In 2015 the Realized Cap was tested 2 times on the way up, before a break (on the third attempt) but on the way down the Realized Cap also was a strong support while in this Bear Market we didn’t saw the same behaviour.
While many people remain worried with ETH Long/Short ratio we may be ending the consolidation period after the biggest correction since inception, almost 95% from top to bottom. The monthly USD chart supports the idea of a potential bottom formed in the last 4 months and potently followed by a strong breakout, nevertheless this may not happen yet.
The daily chart is also quite interesting and a bit Bullish considering price action with some of the following patterns. We shouldn’t forget that ETH trades below the 200Day SMA for almost 290 days (longest period trading below this MA) and sooner or later this should change.
What we need is more price action supporting this idea. Ideally we should break the blue ascending triangle testing $290 or even more, and then find support near $200. If something like this happens we may not revisit prices below 150 because the consolidation was quite extended but we can’t be sure. Anyway, this isn’t financial advice, consider this an idea with probably less than 10% chances to materialize.
Many indicators and patterns suggest a big move in the cryptocurrency market in the next weeks/months. One of this patterns is quite visible on BTC Dominance chart. For the last 200 days a triangle is consolidating and a break is quite imminent since we entered the last 25% of this formation. Breaking down would trigger an alts season, breaking up may trigger further lower lows for alts and probably also BTC.
Until now Total Market Cap still holds where we expected but moving higher or lower also suggests more price action than what we had in the last days.