If we consider the fact that Binance (one of the major exchanges) is 30 days away from blocking all U.S. customers from the regular exchange (where many alts are traded) the fact that BTC dominance is again near another local High shouldn’t be a surprise. Nevertheless the big question remains the same when and how strong is the next Alts Season (since all attempts to start one failed).
At the moment, it’s hard to guess when since we don’t have strong patterns playing out and also because the bounce on many BTC pairs is now vanishing with some of them already reaching new Lower Lows. On the other hand BTC may test the top of the short term downtrend and if it breaks out from that channel alts probably will suffer a bit more. Best case scenario Alts may finally start recovering after September 12 but nothing is granted. After all, BTC and Alts may keep lagging until October/November or they can do something else.
Nothing shared here or anywhere else can be taken as granted or should be used as the only source of information because no one can perfectly time each move. In fact, BTC pushed above what would be my Local Top (12.8k or 11.5k) but strongly rejected the new Local Top (13.9k on average).
This local top can be the Top of the Big Wave 1, previously mentioned, or we may push a bit more (even reaching 15k), something I wasn’t expecting and that may not happen but we need to consider this possibility.
I don’t believe in parabolic moves to 30K this year like some already published and I still consider this move quite Bearish (for short term) but this is what I’m looking at.
Multiple daily closes below 12.8k will confirm this local top but if we close above 12.8k we may have one more push eventually testing 15k or more. Many indicators suggest overbought and I believe we have now the perfect conditions for a Bull Trap that may trap some buyers for 2 or 3 months.
Let’s wait and see how the week and month will close and don’t forget that we already achieved five consecutive months in green… sooner or later a pause is more than welcome.
BTC+LTC+DASH MVRV also pictures well how far we got without any major pullback and how likely it is for some sort of consolidation before we push further.
Local Tops and Bottoms aren’t easy to predict or read but everyone should think about this and more…
Meanwhile alts may finally be ready for their major pump… usually with high speculation and less risk aversion also comes big moves on alts. Nevertheless we may also see something quite different with alts recovering some value while BTC lose it. We definitely need some confirmations but I will not be surprised if many alts pump more than 100% in the coming weeks.
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And he also made some updates on other Price Models using data from coinmetrics. This data provides a new vision for The Bottom of this Bear Market since they are clearly more Bullish than the previous.