More Updates on BTC Price Models

Willy Woo published a new model: Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD).

And he also made some updates on other Price Models using data from coinmetrics. This data provides a new vision for The Bottom of this Bear Market since they are clearly more Bullish than the previous.

Puell Multiple

Another type of metric, which has recently gained some attention in the Crypto community, is the the Dollar Value of Mined Coins on daily basis or Bitcoin’s Daily Issuance. This metric proved to have consistently identify all the swing lows based on previous All Time Highs like clockwork. This relationship held for the two major, halving associated, bull-bear market cycles as well as the several shorter ones during the early years.

This metric shines a light onto the other side of the coin from the proverbial Hodlers of Last Resort, namely the Compulsory Sellers and thefundamentals of mining profitability that are at play in shaping Bitcoin’s market cycles. David Puell’s simple yet ingenious idea of adjusting this metric by its yearly simple moving average has produce a new, powerful and elegant tool to gauge the market cycles from a Mining Profitability/Compulsory Sellers’ perspective.

cryptopoiesis

Top5 Alts Trends and Patterns

We keep monitoring the crypto market but we still need more confirmations for some kind of Bullish Reversal. Anyway we can expect volatility from here since many people are waiting for the same, this can be good or bad but we can’t guess if this time we actually start breaking more resistances or if we keep failing as we did many times in the last months (year).

12H Top5 Alts

In the short term things look better with many supports playing out but they can start failing. Keep checking the charts we previously shared on tradingview and also this new one.

3D Top5 Alts

Major Mayer Multiple

BTC Mayer Multiple is a great indicator but today we also need to ponder alts price action. Considering this we developed an adjusted version of the Mayer Multiple (our Major Mayer Multiple) replacing BTC with Total Market Cap from 2016/2017 and also introducing a second Moving Average. This changes may not be enough to detect reversals in the next cycles but they give more accuracy than focusing only on BTC.

Major Mayer Multiple Example #1 on tradingview

This indicator is quite configurable so we provide clues about some settings you can adjust as you want…

  • SMA #A – Default Mayer Multiple SMA, can be changed from 200 Days to something else.
  • SMA #B – Adjusted Mayer Multiple MA for more details, this daily SMA can be lower or higher than the previous.
  • MMM EMA – Major Mayer Multiple EMA colored line for a smoother visualization. If this EMA is set to 1 it will essentially match the Major Mayer Multiple Area. Low values tend to be more interesting but even a 200 EMA can give you lagging entry and exit points for larger time frames. This EMA is calculated based on the current time frame (of your chart) and not on the daily basis.
  • Color Length – Color length of the MMM EMA, it will help to adjust how the colouring of this EMA is made. For instance if MMM EMA is set to 1 and Color Length to 1, every time the EMA increases the line will change. This setting essentially exists to reduce noise when the direction changes for few ticks.
  • Upper Band – Upper limit, triggers a color change on the Major Mayer Multiple Area.
  • Lower Band – Lower limit, triggers a color change on the Major Mayer Multiple Area.

Script and Examples

BTC+LTC+DASH MVRV

In 2014/2015 (previous Bear Market) BTC represented more than 80% of the Total Market Cap but today this value is below 60%. Considering this and because we don’t have enough data to create a MRVR ratio for all the major cryptocurrencies (calculated by dividing the Network Value by the Realised Cap), some of them didn’t even exist, we will work with BTC, LTC and DASH using Coimetrics.io.

BTC+LTC*DASH MVRV

What we can clearly notice is how the cryptocurrency market dipped without giving much fight probably because we have more experienced traders and investors (fighting less the downside). Something also interesting is how the Market Cap was quite stable above the Realized cap and then we saw what can be consider has the final capitulation (many will disagree on that but looking at the MVRV ratio we can see a strong reaction at the same lows).

Nevertheless the big questions remain the same. Will we go lower? Is this the bottom? Will we see a W shaped bottom or something else? Looking at some patterns on this MVRV Ratio we can expect something different and probably with less downside as we move higher (if we can keep moving higher). In 2015 the Realized Cap was tested 2 times on the way up, before a break (on the third attempt) but on the way down the Realized Cap also was a strong support while in this Bear Market we didn’t saw the same behaviour.