BTC Bullish Confirmations?

BTC broke some resistances but now we need confirmations. Using the 3 Day chart we can foresee two major scenarios.

  • BTC doesn’t pullback much (preferably 8.5k but ~7.9k should be fine) and keeps rising breaking more resistances (including ~13k).
  • BTC achieved a new lower high (below 10k) and starts pushing lower (eventually finding support near 5k).
3Day BTC
Daily BTC

BTC Major Wave 2

Investing isn’t a sprint but in the cryptocurrency world we have some sprints and also consolidation periods. Overall we move slower than everyone buying this local tops think we will. We saw far too much hype in the past four weeks with analysts suggesting 30k targets for this year when price was in fact much higher than fundamentals and some slower indicators like the 200 Moving Averages.

BTC Weekly chart

Anyway… some time ago it was suggested we could test two support areas but at this point I will discard the second support because we pushed higher and because we don’t usually pullback more than 45% (in Bull Markets). If we keep the Bullish trend, has I expect we will (but we may not, nothing is granted) a 45% pullback is probably the best we will have.

BTC Daily chart with Trading Range

Nonetheless using more conservatives entries anything below 9k can be a good entry for the next 3 months and more. We really need to see how price action evolves after breaking down this red line but before it happens the idea is quite simple: above 10k Supply is in control (until it isn’t), below 9k Demand should be in control.

Historically any break below the 100SMA is sharp and quick but since this Bull Market is still at the beginning we may have a longer consolidation period and we may even test the 200SMA.

BTC 100SMA and 200SMA

About alts, it’s still unclear when the altseason may start so better to wait until we have a clear and strong signal, for instance alts pumping more than 15% in a single day.

BTC Market Dominance

Good luck all

Top5 Alts Trends and Patterns

We keep monitoring the crypto market but we still need more confirmations for some kind of Bullish Reversal. Anyway we can expect volatility from here since many people are waiting for the same, this can be good or bad but we can’t guess if this time we actually start breaking more resistances or if we keep failing as we did many times in the last months (year).

12H Top5 Alts

In the short term things look better with many supports playing out but they can start failing. Keep checking the charts we previously shared on tradingview and also this new one.

3D Top5 Alts

Total Market Cap Update

Total Market Cap is looking better but we need to stay very cautious trading this bottom. At the moment we have an impressive volume pushing us in the right direction, we started breaking some resistances, some alts already broke their downtrend and it seems that the buying pressure may increase as alts will start retracing (providing better entry points than now) nevertheless nothing is granted.

I’m looking for a confirmation of an Adam and Eve bottom (even if the Eve low is 10% above the Adam low, not really perfect) expecting that should push us out of the broadening wedge (green lines). It may happen soon or not but a pullback from here is quite expected. Using the Total Market Cap we may pullback 10/15% but better not to fall more than that or we may move below our supports (yellow and blue lines) invalidating a move higher in the short term.

Total Market Cap (50MA Yellow, 200MA Red)

Using the VPVR (Volume Profile) we have almost no price action between 150B and 170B, meaning this range can easily be skipped by buyers and sellers, nevertheless we have the 200 Daily MA playing as resistance. Usually we expect some support/resistance from the 50MA and 200MA but breaking them easily also happens often as we can see recently with EOSUSD but sooner or later a retracement happens.

EOSUSD (50MA Yellow, 200MA Red)

For any MA to be a strong Resistance or Support it needs multiple testes and failures. For instance on EOSUSD the 50MA and 200MA are very far from each other and the 50MA is still below the 200MA, so the 50MA will be our next support and the 200MA will remain the resistance (even if it broke, it will likely not last longer).