Weekly Total Market Cap

For more than half of this year I was ignoring the Total Market Cap because BTC is completely in control since April/May 2019. Alts did nothing relevant or impressive in this period and they may not do anything interesting while BTC is under 10k. Nevertheless Total Market Cap is showing us exactly why BTC and Alts may start pushing higher from this level.

Weekly Total Market Cap

First of all, we should consider a false breadown of the Weekly 50SMA (current support for almost one month) but a breakdown of this Moving Average may be the trigger for another major leg up. We don’t have to go lower but we need a trigger to push higher. That trigger usually comes in form of price action and volume. Something that we lack at the moment but who knows when and why it will come. Another reason to start moving higher is just because Bears may have lost control and fuel to push price lower. If no one is interested in selling lower than price will hold and bounce at some point without any particular reason.

Weekly Total Market Cap

One thing we can be sure, 200B Market Cap represents a confluence of supports and no one should be expecting another breakdown like the previous. History never repeats exactly in the same way because we don’t have the same market structure and conditions. What we currently have is a reversal from the Bearish trend formed in 2018 and a nice pullback from the last high (near 400B), we remain in Bearish territory (for short term) until we push above 230B Market Cap. The white line in this Weekly Chart is the 9 Week SMA and it usually works like a short term trend, if price gets above we can expect another leg up but if we remain under this line then another low is possible and even expectable (eventually around 170B market cap, but it may not happen).

Alts Market Cap Update

Alts may be ready to start another major move. We waited enough to be confidant on what is going on and we only need confirmations from now on. First confirmation for a major move is breaking up the Daily 50SMA (yellow) and the second confirmation is breaking up the Daily 200SMA (red). Meanwhile we can do another low depending on what BTC is about to do.

Daily Alts Market Cap

Be ready we may end the Year with some crazy price action (or not, no one knows for sure).

Alts Market Dominance

BTC Short Term Price Action

Since the Weekly MACD is cooling down and eventually reversing in the next weeks don’t be surprised with more Bullish price action, even if we have some resistances to break before pushing above 10k.

Weekly BTC

I’m still waiting to see 7K tested (something between 6.8k and 7.4k to be more accurate), nevertheless breaking the 12H 50SMA (yellow) may prevent another low. As example let’s compare what BTC did when it found support near 3K.


Why 7K BTC is still a possibility?

BTC pushed higher quite well this year, nevertheless the Bullish momentum vanished and we entered a longer consolidation period. If we use larger time frames we can see some similarities with past price action but not exactly in the same scale/proportion.

Weekly BTC

In 2016 BTC tested the 3Day 200MA without crossing down the 3Day 50MA and this year we trade between this two Moving Averages for some days (more than 20). This situation could be more dangerous but we can’t forget the Halvening in May 2020 (7 months left). We can still cross down the 3D 200MA but odds that we will see a stronger reaction/bounce after testing that MA are higher than many may think (or not, nothing is granted and we may not even test that MA).

3Day BTC

BTC Sinking?

For some it’s time to turn Bearish and start shorting and closing all their longs, for some others it’s time to start buying more BTC until we test the weekly 50 MA yellow, (or not, since we don’t usually kiss that MA).

Anyway, from here we can expect to test another lower low, eventually something between 6.8k and 7.5k but it may not happen if Bulls take control sooner than “expected”.

Weekly BTC

Alt Market Cap Update

Waiting can be boring but many times it’s the best we can do… Alts Market Cap failed to bounce and dipped quite hardly after testing the Daily 200MA. Nonetheless, this dip doesn’t mean we go down from here, probably many Stop Losses got triggered and at this point almost all long leveraged position are liquidated (non-existent) providing less fuel for Bears.

Daily Alts Market Cap

What Bulls want to see now is a strong support like previously mentioned. If we hold here for two or more weeks it means Bulls are finally in control and they will catch any lower low without hesitation (like some already did with this one).

Historically we already saw something quite similar when the previous Bull Market Started…

Weekly Alts Market Cap

Alts Market Cap Update

Alts Market Cap will probably test the Weekly 200SMA (near 65B Market Cap) before pushing higher. All attempts failed and probably will continue failing until we test the Weekly 200SMA. We have a small probability to bounce at this level but the weekly candle (after this last failure) suggest weakness and more downside for the next 2 weeks (or more).

Weekly Alts Market Cap

Alts Make or Break

Alts Market Cap is potentially forming a descending broadening wedge but it also faces the fact that the daily 200SMA (red line) may not hold in the current conditions. BTC continues to rip alts and we can’t be sure where or when it will stop. Again my Bullish sentiment is more inclined for an alts season starting in the next 2 to 4 weeks but I can be wrong and alts may keep going down.

Daily Alts Market Cap


On the short term ETHBTC is testing new Lows but how about mid and long term?

Monthly ETHBTC

Monthly chart shows something interesting and it eventually gives us some clues about what may happen if some conditions are met. First of all my mid/long term sentiment is Bullish and will remain Bullish unless we start breaking some “strong” supports (0.011BTC or 0.008BTC for instance). That said, ETHBTC is near two major supports, 0.018BTC on the monthly and 0.016BTC on the weekly. Considering the fact that ETH fundamentals (transactions, network activity, and so on) aren’t dropping we can expect them to increase as soon as we have some positive price action. Market is very cautious at the moment because everyone seems afraid of BTC achieving new local lows (8k or less) but if it doesn’t happen this month price will not lag forever.


Nevertheless if the market gains more confidence and ETH holds at this levels closing the month near 0.016 or 0.018 and if we have a bounce in the next month that bounce may signal the beginning of a strong reversal. Never forget that corrections are slow and boring, but Bull Runs can last less and move fast. The monthly chart clearly shows 6 big green candles and plenty of small red candles (ignoring the first 2 months).


BTC Dominance near another High

If we consider the fact that Binance (one of the major exchanges) is 30 days away from blocking all U.S. customers from the regular exchange (where many alts are traded) the fact that BTC dominance is again near another local High shouldn’t be a surprise. Nevertheless the big question remains the same when and how strong is the next Alts Season (since all attempts to start one failed).

BTC Vs Alts Market Dominance

At the moment, it’s hard to guess when since we don’t have strong patterns playing out and also because the bounce on many BTC pairs is now vanishing with some of them already reaching new Lower Lows. On the other hand BTC may test the top of the short term downtrend and if it breaks out from that channel alts probably will suffer a bit more. Best case scenario Alts may finally start recovering after September 12 but nothing is granted. After all, BTC and Alts may keep lagging until October/November or they can do something else.

Daily BTC