BTC achieved an even stronger bounce than what would be expected. When we have such moves it’s better to wait some days or even weeks before taking anything for sure. A small example why can be seen on the next chart. Since the market structure is different I’m obviously not expecting the same reaction nor new lows but testing some previous resistances as support (before more pumps) is still a possibility.

BTC “Pumps and Dumps” in Bear Markets

Nevertheless instead of focusing on the short term let’s see what this mean for mid and long term using Multiple Time Frames. First of all this pump puts BTC above the 200 Day SMA, quite relevant Support in Bull Markets. As we already know we dipped below for one month and it could mean something worse than it seems to be (nothing granted yet because we need to remain above this MA but don’t forget the Halving in May 2020).

Daily BTC and the 200SMA

Using the 3Day chart we see how this pump wasn’t random, the strength of the reaction is always unknown but when the Market starts a new Cycle (Bullish one) BTC tends to retest the 3D 200SMA and it may happen again in the next weeks or months (we can’t be sure yet – or ever, nothing is granted). What BTC needs for confirmations is to stay above this two moving averages (in this time frame).

3Day BTC with 100SMA and 200SMA

Using weekly and monthly charts we also have confirmations for a Bull Market continuation but we also see that it may happen faster or slower depending of the next days/weeks. BTC doesn’t have to pump to 20k in few days (like some already speculate) and it doesn’t have to go lower… patience is key.

Weekly BTC with 50/100/200SMA
Monthly BTC with 9/21/50SMA

Some related Posts

Categories: Analysis