Alt Coins Market Cycles

Besides all the fundamentals something great about cryptocurrencies is transparency. We have so much data available to produce good information it became fascinating. Not all the information produced is good but we need to start somewhere and improve.

Something I noticed, and I’m not the only one, is how alt seasons happen in a recurring way. Since bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency and it may continue to be for many years we can observe this cycles just looking at the BTC dominance chart.

Bitcoin Dominance 2013-2019 – charts.cointrader.pro

In this first chart we notice that BTC is losing Dominance over time and we can also see five major alt Seasons, each one different in many details but all of them quick (between 1 and 4 months) and sharp (between 220% and 2300% increase in market cap.).

Bellow each one is listed in duration and proportion but the previous rise (when present) due to BTC increasing in dominance is ignored.

Duration…

  • #1 – 90 days
  • #2 – 125 days
  • #3 – 60 days
  • #4 – 110 days
  • #5 – 35 days

Alt market cap rise…

  • #1 – 1800%
  • #2 – 220%
  • #3 – 250%
  • #4 – 2300%
  • #5 – 280%
Bitcoin Dominance 2017-2019 – tradingview.com

In both charts we have a descending triangle in formation for the last 150 days suggesting a new alt season when, and if, this pattern breaks on the downside. Nevertheless this recurrence shouldn’t be considered alone and we can’t forget that the dominant market trend remains Bearish.

Any alt season attempt in a Bear market tends to be short lived and reverted however a Bear market can start bottoming with an alt season. For instance Q3 2014 signalled the bottom for alts and BTC only reached the bottom in Q1 2015.

Bitcoin vs Alts, 2014/2015 Bottom as example